Talking to German manufacturers and colleagues in the German press (and they have boots on the ground, as it were) they have absolutely no doubt about the show going ahead. Talking to manufacturers in Europe and the US, there is a similar degree of certainty. Many will have adjusted their plans somewhat, but all but a very few of them are proceeding on the assumption that the show will happen.
There’s unlikely to be a total lockdown.
A general shift in governmental policy towards “living with Covid” means that the response to any surge in infection levels is unlikely to result in the level of restrictions previously imposed. To give you an example, in France during the first lockdown, we were limited to one hour of exercise a day, within one kilometre of home. We were expected to work from home and leaving home meant carrying a dated form with your reasons and departure time filled in. The most recent lockdown abandoned the declaration forms, limited travel to a 30km radius, mandated masks in public places and limited the maximum size of public events. It relied heavily on the Covid certification/health pass scheme to allow access and trace infections. You can see how the emphasis has shifted over time. So at this point, a major lockdown is extremely unlikely. Instead, if a surge occurs, they are likely to look to limited restrictions and vaccination levels to control the virus.
Even if restrictions are imposed, the mechanisms to govern behaviour and events are already in place.
The pan-European certification programme (vaccine passport) means that the vast majority of people carry proof of vaccination status in their pocket, either on paper or on their phone, while the ability to check that status already exists in the form of a QR code-based App that can be installed on any phone. Meanwhile, the ticket and wristband access system that’s already used by the High-End Show organisers is already extremely effective in controlling the numbers accessing any given section of the show – presumably in order to meet fire regulations. If necessary, that system and the number of ‘zones’ could easily be further extended to spread visitor numbers more evenly, while the show organisers promise measures to ease congestion at known pinch points. Even making masks compulsory wouldn’t significantly impact the event and German/Europe is well used to providing local (even daily) Covid testing.
The notion of limiting numbers or imposing social distancing within the individual rooms is probably impossible to police at an event on this scale (the number of personnel involved in the organiser’s doing it would be prohibitive, while relying on individual exhibitors to self-police seems like a forlorn hope) but the fact that the Munich rooms and corridors are significantly more spacious than the average hotel, combined with evolving personal behaviour make those measures less important: suddenly it seems less appealing (and certainly less urgent) to wedge your way past two large strangers to get a closer look at some object of desire. In the same way, thrusting oneself into an already packed room is equally unappealing. I suspect that visitors will be far more willing to pass by and come back later…
